Friday, October 29, 2010

Current projections for Senate and House races

Election Projection predicts
Senate: Republicans 49, Democrats 49, Independents  2 (caucus with Democrats)
House: Republicans pick up 62 sets to control House with 241 seats to 194 fro Democrats.

Five Thirty Eight predicts:
Senate: Republicans 48 seats, Democrats 50 seats, 2 Independents (caucus with Democrats)
House: Republicans 232, Democrats 203

CBS predicts:
Senate: Republicans 46, Democrats 48, 2 Independents (caucus with Democrats) , 4 Toss Up
House: Republicans 209, Democrats 198, Toss Up 28

The Attack Democrat predicts:
Senate: 48 Republicans, 50 Democrats, 2 Independents (caucus with Democrats)
House: Republicans 232, Democrats 203

Friday, October 22, 2010

A video every American, particularly every young American, should see

Watch this video with your kids or grandkids.  If you can't see it below, go to   http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=geyAFbSDPVk&sns=tw

Wednesday, October 20, 2010

Quick update on key Senate races

Here is a quick update on key Senate races from Election Projection (EP) http://www.electionprojection.com/index.php and FiveThirtyEight (538) http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/senate :

Nevada—EP and 538 have the race between Reid (D) and Angle (R) as basically a TIE or Close Repub WIN
California—EP and 538 have Boxer (D) leading Fiorina (R) by 4%--Close DEM WIN
Kentucky—EP has it close with Paul (R) leading by 3%.  538 has Paul ahead by 7%.  TIE or Close Repub WIN
Delaware—EP and 538 have Coons with a comfortable lead over O’Donnell.  DEM WIN

Tuesday, October 19, 2010

Christine O''Donnell--What she doesn't know about the Constitution is a lot.

Delaware Republican candidate Christine O'Donnell was shocked, shocked I say, to learn from her opponent in a debate Monday night that the Constitution of the United States actually has this amendment that calls for a separation of church and state. She had never heard of that before. Check out this video on dailykos

DE-Sen: Video proof that O'Donnell really did say that

That's what happens when everything you know about the Constitution of the United States you learn from Glenn Beck.

Friday, October 15, 2010

It all comes down to turnout

There seems to be little doubt that the mid-terms will be decided by one thing—turnout.  Republicans are excited and ready to turnout in record numbers.  Democrats are much less enthusiastic and many appear likely to stay home.  What difference does the Republican turnout margin make?  Huge.  Here are the latest estimates from Gallup.

In a low turnout situation in which Democrats pretty much stay at home while Republicans go to the polls, Republicans have a 17% point advantage.  If that happened, they might be able to take over Congress by a margin not seen since the 1920s.  Remember what happened then?  Republicans 1920s=Great Depression 1930s.  Republicans 2010=Great Depression once again.


If you can't read the chart above, click here to see Gallup’s analysis and poll results.  http://www.gallup.com/poll/143576/Republicans-Maintain-Strength-Among-Likely-Voters.aspx

Bottom line Democrats.  If you stay home and don’t vote, you hand Congress to the Republicans and especially the Tea Party folks who will exercise tremendous control over the Republican leadership.  On the other hand, if you go to the polls and vote, we may be able to hold Republicans to gains not much larger than typical for the party out of power in a mid-term election.  It’s our choice.

VOTE DEMOCRATIC OR SOCIAL SECURITY, MEDICARE, HEALTH REFORM, FINANCIAL REFORM AND MUCH, MUCH MORE WILL BE IN DANGER.  ALLOW REPUBLICANS A HUGE MARGIN OF VICTORY AND YOU RUN THE REAL RISK OF ALLOWING THEM TO GOVERN THE COUNTRY RIGHT IN TO ANOTHER GREAT DEPRESSION.  THE ENEMIES OF PROGRESS CAN WIN ONLY IF WE LET THEM.  DON'T LET THEM.





Wednesday, October 13, 2010

Vote for the moment

Before you go to the polls and vote or don’t go the polls and vote out of anger or regret or frustration or grief or disappointment or whatever emotion you are feeling right now, recall this quote from Barack Obama during the 2008 campaign.

Someday we will be able to look back and tell our children that this was the moment when we began to provide care for the sick and good jobs to the jobless; this was the moment when the rise of the oceans began to slow and our planet began to heal; this was the moment when we ended a war and secured our nation and restored our image as the last, best hope on earth.

We didn’t get all the way there but we started.  That moment hasn’t come, yet.  Those who said “NO we can’t” spoke louder than those of us who said “YES, we can.”  Maybe we thought it would be too easy.  We didn’t realize how much some would fight NOT to care for the sick, NOT to help the jobless, NOT to stop the oceans from rising or the planet from healing, who would NOT want to end an unnecessary and unjust war or secure our nation or restore the image of our country.  We know now.  And now, we have a choice.  We can abandon our search for the moment Obama describe or we can pick ourselves up and continue on the journey, a little wiser but more determined than ever to be able to look back and tell our children and grand children that we didn’t give up on the moment and because we didn’t it finally came.

VOTE DEMOCRATIC—VOTE FOR THE MOMENT

Latest projections on Senate and House races

Here are the latest projections for the Senate and House races:

Senate:
Election Projection has Democrats and Republicans tied with 49 seats each with 2 Independents.
538's average of 100,000 simulations has Democrats ahead with 52 seats to 48 for Republicans.

House:
Election Projection has the Republicans winning control of the House with 227 seats to 208 for Democrats.
538's average of 100,000 simulations has the same projection:  227 Republicans to 208 Democrats.

See the full projections state by state at:
Election Projection 

538

Monday, October 11, 2010

We’re on track to get the best Congress money can buy.

Money has a lot to do with what we are seeing in this election.  The January ruling by the Supreme Court in Citizens United vs. Federal Election Commission essentially gave the court’s stamp of approval for major corporations and rich individuals to pour millions into the mid-term elections without having to reveal what they were doing.

Rupert Murdock has poured millions into the mid-term elections backing Republicans.  He gave $1 million to the Republican Governors Associations and another $1 million to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce that is aggressively advertising against Democratic candidates. (NOTE: The Chamber is taking money from foreign corporations and rich individuals with an interest in influencing the American government.)  Murdock publishes 175 newspapers, including the New York Post and The Times of London. In the U.S., he owns the Twentieth Century Fox Studio, Fox Network, and 35 TV stations that reach more than 40% of the country. His cable channels include Fox News (which aggressively supporters Republican and Tea Party candidates), and 19 regional sports channels. In all, as many as one in five American homes at any given time will be tuned into a show News Corp. either produced or delivered.  Fox News has been a major backer of the Tea Party movement and Republicans in general.  Australian by birth, in 1985 Murdoch became a United States citizen to satisfy legislation that only United States citizens could own American television stations. This also resulted in Murdoch losing his Australian citizenship. It's ironic that Americans who oppose immigration are being manipulated by an immigrant.

Then there are the Koch brothers, particularly David Koch.  David Hamilton Koch (pronounced "coke",born May 3, 1940) is an American businessman, philanthropist, political activist and chemical engineer. He is a co-owner, (with older brother Charles), and an executive vice president of Koch Industries, a conglomerate that is the second largest privately held company in the U.S. Koch is the richest resident of New York City, as of 2010. He is a major patron of the arts and funder of conservative and libertarian political causes.  Koch with his brother Charles has supported groups and candidates advocating the abolition of U.S. Federal agencies including the FBI, CIA, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, United States Department of Energy, and other federal regulatory agencies; ending Social Security, minimum-wage laws, corporate taxes, and legalization of prostitution, recreational drugs, and suicide.  Koch is a major supporter of Americans for Prosperity Foundation and FreedomWorks both of which helped to create and finance the US Tea Party movement.

These fiscal conservatives quite simply want to take the country back to the robber baron era of the late 1800’s before trust busting, before government regulation of big business, before the minimum wage, before labor had a right to organize and so on.  They are spending aggressively to promote laissez-faire capitalism with little or no government regulation of business.  They believe 2010 and 2012 may be their breakthrough years.  Their motive is essentially greed.  To accomplish their goal of rolling back a century or more of progressive legislation to regulate big business they appeal to social conservatives by praying on their fear of change and xenophobia.  I am quite certain that fiscal conservatives like Murdock and the Koch brothers care absolutely nothing about gay rights, immigration, abortion, and all the other social issues over which social conservatives are so upset.  The fiscal conservatives just want the votes social conservatives can provide and are willing to appeal to social conservatives’ fears to get it.  It is an alliance of greed and fear. 

There are several ironies about this upcoming election.  If ElectionProjection is right (http://www.electionprojection.com/index.php) the Republicans may take control of both houses of Congress (House: 226 R to 209 D; Senate: 50 R to 48 D).  In other words, voters upset about unemployment and the state of the economy in general will be returning control over Congress to the very party that got us into this mess to begin with.  Additionally, the voters will be sending a message to the Republican Party that two more years of high unemployment will be good for the Republican Party and will give it the best chance of expanding its control over Congress and gaining the White House in 2012.  The Republican strategy for the 2010 elections was to obstruct any efforts by Obama and the Democrats to turn the economy and unemployment numbers around so the Democrats would get blamed and angry voters would vote them out.  They did this by resisting the original stimulus and then scaring voters about the deficit to prevent the administration from getting a second stimulus through Congress.  By the way, most economists have not been that concerned about the deficit short term since government spending is the only way to really get the economy moving again and interest rates are so low that financing short-term deficit spending is not a problem.  Long term the deficit is a problem of course but the best way to deal with it is to get the economy back on track.  Paul Krugman and other economists have argued that we need to be pumping a lot more money into the economy the stop state and local governments from laying off workers, jump start investments in infrastructure, provide incentives for small business to hire, and so on.  In my opinion, and the opinion of many of them, the original stimulus should have been much bigger and more front ended and a second stimulus, if anything larger and more targeted than the first, should have been passed last spring or early summer.  Of course, Republicans blogged that.

The Republican strategy of high unemployment/blame the Democrats seems to be working.  I expect the Republicans to double down on that strategy over the next two years.  Note that corporations and rich Republican supporters are not suffering from the unemployment/economic situation.  The stock market keeps improving and corporate profits are in good, and in some cases great shape.  Fiscal conservative Republicans see the opportunity to take over control of government and really go to work rolling back progressive legislation, regulations, and so on after 2012.  The other irony is that the Republicans will only make token efforts to advance the social conservative anti-gay, anti-immigrant, anti-abortion, etc agenda.  The Republicans will do just enough not to alienate the far social right but not enough to turn off the fiscal conservative independents that they will need in 2012. 

Much of this is coming about for two reasons:  First, corporate and rich conservative money flowing into anti-Obama, anti-Democrat, pro-Republican campaigns at a rate we haven’t seen in some time thanks to that Supreme Court case (By the way, Justice Clarence Thomas’ wife runs her own conservative political action group supporting Republican candidates.  Talk about a conflict of interest.).  Second, Obama has failed to energize his core supporters (young, blacks, Hispanics, gays, liberals, progressives, etc.) at a time when fiscal and social conservatives are excited about voting.  Many people in the groups that supported Obama in 2008 are right now planning to sit out the mid-term elections.  For example, Hispanics are so mad about the anti-immigration stuff that they are threatening not to vote.  Of course, that is really stupid since by not voting they will be allowing the anti-immigration crowd a victory.  College students aren’t energized because of their worries about their prospects for employment so they may not show up to vote.  That is also dumb since they will be allowing Republicans to take control of Congress and as I said Republicans created the mess and have no incentive to take action to bring unemployment down at least until after 2012. 

Things could still turn around by Election Day.  Polls show that there is some narrowing of various races.  Tea Party candidates tend to be a drag on Republican support at least among Independents.  Also, Obama’s recent efforts to reach out to his core supporters is having some effect.  The problem is there is not much time left.  Voting has already started.  Even if things start trending in a Democrat direction there just may not be enough time for us to overtake and pass the Republicans.  Must admit I am not optimistic.  Sorry.

Sunday, October 3, 2010

Support the Attack Democrat

You may see ads on the Attack Democrat from conservative groups.  The Attack Democrat encourages you to click on these ads.  Every click takes money from the conservative group advertising and gives it to the Attack Democrat who then donates it to liberal/progressive causes.  Let's take from them and give to us.

The Attack Democrat--100% Liberal

Surprise.  Surprise.  The Attack Democrat took the Americans for Democratic Action quiz to see how liberal he was.  His score? 100%.  As I have said, there is nothing conservative about the Attack Democrat.

Click on the following to take the ADA quiz and find out just how liberal you are.