Obama ahead in 4 of 6 new forecasts—1 decider to come

Four out of six popular non-scientific forecasting models predict that Obama will win election.  The results of one model that has picked the winner since 1936 will not be available until November 5^th or late November 4^th.  Here are the models and their predictions.

Models predicting Obama will win:

Seminole model
Republicans take Florida when Miami beats the Florida State Seminoles.  Democrats win Florida when FSU wins.  FSU beat Miami on Oct. 20^th.  Florida is a critical battleground state this year.

World Series Model

Democrats win when the National League team wins.  San Francisco won.

Children’s Model

Scholastic Magazine’s poll of children almost always picks the winner.  The children picked Obama this year.

Halloween Mask Model

The number of masks sold for each candidate has predicted the winner since 1996.  Obama’s likeness is outselling Romney’s by 60% to 40%.

Models predicting Romney will win:

The Squirrel Model
Gnocchi, a squirrel from North Charleston, SC, predicts ate nine peanuts from a Romney bowl and only five from an Obama bowl.  Gnocchi went for Obama in 2008 but has switched parties this year.

The Height Model

The taller candidate usually wins.   Romney is an inch taller than Obama.

 

The Decider:   The Redskins Model

Since 1936, the incumbent candidate has won when the Redskins won their final home game before the election.  The Redskins play the Carolina Panthers on November 4^th.
Read more here: http://www.wtvm.com/story/19906084/obama-or-romney-ask-the-squirrel-or-the-washington-redskins

“Obama’s done a great job for NJ” says Chris Christie.

Governor Chris Christie appearing on Fox News this morning had this to say about Obama’s response to the Sandy crisis:

“He gave me his number at the White House and told me to call him if I needed anything”

“I spoke to the president three times yesterday. He called me for the last time at midnight last night asking what he could do. I said, if you can expedite designating New Jersey as a major disaster area that that would help us to get federal money and resources in here as quickly as possible to help clean up the damage here.”

“The president was great last night. He said he would get it done. At 2 a.m., I got a call from FEMA to answer a couple of final questions and then he signed the declaration this morning. So I have to give the president great credit. He’s been on the phone with me three times in the last 24 hours. He’s been very attentive, and anything that I’ve asked for, he’s gotten to me. So, I thank the president publicly for that. He’s done — as far as I’m concerned — a great job for New Jersey.”

See the video here or below: http://www.addictinginfo.org/2012/10/30/christie-not-interested-in-photo-op/

The race for the presidency as it stands now

One week from the election and with most campaigning on hold while the country deals with Sandy, here is where the Electoral College stands as of today.  The Attack Democrat is following 10 different forecasts in addition to his own.  Right now forecasters who allocate all of the electoral votes (No Toss Ups) are projecting that Obama will win the election with 290 to 332 electoral votes.  Forecasters who include toss ups give Obama 201 to 280 electoral votes.   Most of these see the contests in FL, VA, OH, IA, CO and NH as too close to call.

The Attack Democrat is currently projecting that Obama will win the election with roughly 296 electoral votes to around 242 for Romney.

It is June once more

Nate Silver at Five Thirty Eight says the election has come full circle.  After the conventions and debates and gaffs and endorsements and job numbers and over a billion dollars in ads, we are right back where we were last June.  The race is close with Obama having a slight lead in the swing states and Electoral College.  The Electoral College map looks almost exactly as it looked last June.  Take a look at Silver’s forecast on June 7 vs. now.  See the chart below and here http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/29/oct-28-in-swing-states-a-predictable-election/#more-36832

While Romney has improved in some of the June swing states and Obama in others, none of the swing states that Silver had in Obama’s column in June switched to Romney and none of the Romney states switched to Obama.  In fact, Silver says the projected leader his model had in every one of the fifty states is exactly the same as it was back in June.

Sophisticated “Meta-Analysis” by Princeton Professor projects Obama win

Princeton Professor Sam Wang has released the results of a sophisticated “meta-analysis” projecting the likely outcome of the Presidential election.  In 2008, Wang’s analysis predicted the outcome of the election within 1 electoral vote.  In 2010, Wang’s calculations missed the Senate outcome by 1 seat and the House outcome by 13.  That’s a very good record, up there with the best/most accurate forecasts.

So, what is Wang predicting this time?  As of today, Wang’s model predicts that Obama will get 299 electoral votes to 239 for Romney.

The charts below (or go here:  http://election.princeton.edu/history-of-electoral-votes-for-obama/

Show the likely outcome of the election at the 68% (RED) and 95% (YELLOW) confidence levels.  In short, Wang’s model says we can be 68% confident given current polls and trends that Obama will receive somewhere between 280 and 320 electoral votes and win the election.  We can be 95% confident—nearly certain--that Obama’s electoral vote count will be between about 260 to 330 electoral votes (See the blue bar chart below).

In short, Wang says there is a very high probability based upon current polls and trends that Obama will win re-election with a much smaller probability (but not impossibility) that Romney will win (See the portion in YELLOW below the RED line on the first chart below).

Obama’s current path to victory

Nate Silver at 538 has released a new summary of where he sees the competitive states based on his analysis of the most recent polls.    Silver forecasts that Obama will win the Electoral College vote by 294 to 244 given current polls.  Silver provides forecasts for the competitive states in the chart below and here: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/26/oct-25-the-state-of-the-states/#more-36719

As you can see from the chart, Silver estimates that Obama has a better than 90% chance of winning OR, NM, MN, and PA.  Those states would give him 237 electoral votes.  Obama has a better than 80% chance of carrying WI and reaching 247 electoral votes, just 23 votes short of the magical 270 he needs to win.  NV and OH would insure Obama’s re-election and Silver projects he has a 75% or better chance of carrying those states. 

In summary, Ohio continues to be a key state that could give the win to Obama even if he loses FL, VA, NH, CO, IA.  Let’s hope Silver is right.

Where do your Federal tax dollars go?

Republicans want to cut government spending.  They don’t just want to cut government spending a little.  They want to cut it a lot…a whole lot.  If you listen to Republicans, you will get the idea that almost every dollar of government spending, particularly spending by the Federal government is wasted on things we don’t need and shouldn’t want, accept maybe spending on wars.

The tragic thing about this argument is that too many people buy it.  They buy it because they have no idea where their Federal tax dollars go.  They don’t appreciate what they are getting for their tax dollars because they don’t truly realize what they are getting.

The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities has just released a new video that sets the record straight.  Watch it below or here:  http://www.cbpp.org/cms/?fa=view&id=3854  Make sure that you show it to all your friends, especially your Republican and Independent friends.  Make them watch this video then ask them what they think is a waste.   What would they cut? 

Extremists Republicans no woman should want in office

I hope the women of America are paying attention.  Mitt Romney, Paul Ryan, and Richard Mourdock all share the same views when it comes to the reproductive rights of women.  They think women should have NO RIGHTS.  Watch this video.  Get all the women you know to watch this video.  This is why NO woman should ever consider voting for the extremists, and they fill the Republican Party and will fill Romney’s White House if he is elected.

Watch here or below: http://youtu.be/omCvqq_U-kY

Don’t ignore poll “house effects”

House effects refer to the internal dynamics of how polls are constructed and conducted by major pollsters that can cause polls from a particular organization to favor one candidate over another.  House effects aren’t necessarily intentional.  Most legitimate polling organizations depend for their existence on getting their poll numbers right.  Never-the-less, some polls tend to favor Democrats and others tend to favor Republicans, if ever so slightly.  That can make a big difference in the results.  When you see poll results you need to take into account the House Effects.  Here is a chart that will help you.  Print it and keep it with you.  If you can’t see the chart, go here:  http://www.huffingtonpost.com/simon-jackman/house-effects-by-back-by-_b_2007907.html

As you can see from the chart, Zogby Internet polls tend to favor Obama by just a little less than 2 percent.  Gallup polls tend to favor Romney by a similar percent.  So, you should subtract 2 percent from Obama’s rating in Zogby polls and add 2% to Obama’s rating in Gallup polls.

How Speaker John Boehner could become our next President.

There is a possible scenario under which Speaker of the House, John Boehner would become the next President of the United States.

It is possible that there could be a tie in the Electoral College (EC) if the election is as close as some polls, like Gallup, suggest.  The Washington Post has outlined five possible scenarios that might lead to a 269/269 tie.  See here: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/10/19/an-electoral-college-tie-and-what-it-would-mean/

 Most people aren’t aware of what happens if there is an EC tie.  Here is what could happen. 

In the case of a tie in the Electoral College, the House of Representatives (the NEW one elected this November) would decide the election with each state delegation having one vote.  We don’t know the exact makeup of the new House but Republicans are likely to retain control.  Right now Republicans have more House members in 33 states and Democrats have more members in 16 states.  Minnesota is evenly split.  Now assume that the Republicans vote as a block for Romney.  Romney would become President since Republicans control the House delegation from most states.

Now here is where it gets really interesting.  As I said, the House picks the President in the case of an Electoral College tie.  However, the Senate picks the Vice President.  If the Democrats barely retain control of the Senate, which seems likely, and the Democrats all vote for Biden, then Biden would be elected Vice President.  They could not vote for Obama since the Constitution requires them to pick from the top two V.P. candidates—Biden and Ryan.

Republican Romney would be President and Democrat Biden would be Vice President.

Now, it gets even more interesting.  Congress assembles on January 6 to count the Electoral Votes, so if there is a tie, we would not know who would become President until January 6^th.  We would just have to wait.

Now suppose, for some reason the House still has not broken the tie by January 20^th when the newly elected President is scheduled to take office.  Then, if the Senate has decided the tie for V.P, the newly chosen V.P. would act as President until the House could reach a decision.  In this case, Biden would serve as acting President—assuming the Senate Democrats retained control of the Senate and selected him.

It gets even more interesting.  If the House still has not selected a President and the Senate hasn’t selected a V.P., then guess who becomes acting President?  Answer:  The Speaker of the House. Presumably that would be John Boehner since the Republicans are expected to retain a majority in the House.

And that’s the way Speaker John Boehner could become President of the United States…at least for a while.

Scary, isn’t it?

Our choice: Elect a Boss or a President?

James Lipton from Inside the Actors Studio says Romney’s demeanor is that of “The Boss” and that the choice in this election is whether we want a President who is presidential or a President who acts like a “Boss” and not just any boss but a Boss who wants to give the orders and make the rules as long as he doesn’t have to play by them. I would add that Romney’s demeanor is not just that of the “Boss” but the “Bad Boss,” the boss who is a bully, the boss who orders instead of listens, the boss who seems so confident, determined and assertive but who in reality is a destructive narcissist who  ultimately destroys people, companies and, if given the chance, entire countries.  Elect Romney and you will not get a President.  You will get a boss, a bad boss, a destructive boss.

 Watch Lipton here or here: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3036697/ns/msnbc-hardball_with_chris_matthews/#49454674

 

Visit NBCNews.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

Verdict on the debate

Tonight Romney was a scared rabbit caught in the headlights of Obama's truth.

Anyone with any doubt about how they should vote or who should lead this country for the next four years should have an easy decision after tonight.

Why you don’t want Romney and Ryan to win

Romney and Ryan have gained in the polls.  Biden’s performance in the V.P. debate helped and hopefully Obama will turn things around on Tuesday.  But, you had better be really concerned about Romney/Ryan gaining in key states like Ohio, Virginia and Florida and having a chance a reaching 270 votes in the Electoral College and winning.

Why DON’T you want Romney and Ryan to win?  Here’s why.

If your or one of your family member’s jobs depends upon the American auto industry, then you had better be glad that Romney and Ryan weren’t running things because most of the American auto industry wouldn’t exist today, nor would the jobs.

If you or one of your family members were among the more than 3 million Americans whose jobs were saved or created by the stimulus, then you had better be glad Romney and Ryan weren’t running things back then because there would have been no stimulus to create or save jobs.

If you rely upon Social Security for part or all of your income, then you had better be glad Romney and Ryan haven’t been running things because there would be no traditional Social Security to rely upon.  Your Social Security retirement funds would have been in the stock market during the great recession, just like your 401K and you know what happened to your 401K.

If you enjoy the benefits of Medicare, then you had better be glad that Romney and Ryan haven’t been running things because traditional Medicare wouldn’t exist or would be seriously threatened. (It depends upon which story the Romney/Ryan team is telling at the moment.)  You would be left with a voucher that might or might not cover the cost of your health insurance, assuming of course that you could find an insurance company that would insure you.

If you or a member of your family has a pre-existing condition, you had better hope Romney/Ryan don’t win so that they can repeal Obamacare because you and/or your loved one will either lose their insurance or find that it becomes too expensive to afford.  Of course, you will still have the emergency room of your local hospital to rely upon.

If you blame the banks and Wall Street for causing the Great Recession (which they did), then you had better hope that Romney and Ryan don’t get in power because the banks and Wall Street will be turned loose to cause another Great Recession.

If you believe businesses should be regulated and that there should be government inspections to insure the safety of our food, drugs, and consumer products, then you don’t want to give Romney and Ryan the power to weaken our food, drug and consumer protection laws in the name of  “free enterprise.”

If you are a woman and you don’t want government telling you what you can or cannot do when it comes to the issue of contraception and abortion, then you had better hope that Romney and Ryan don’t get in power because you will be stripped of most of your reproductive rights.

If you are gay and you want to be treated equally when it comes to marriage, service in the military, being able to adopt children and in hundreds of other ways, then you had better hope Romney and Ryan don’t get in power because they will strip gay people of all of the gains they have made toward equal treatment over the last few decades.

If you think the United States should abandon nation building, work with its allies to bring peace to the middle-east and elsewhere, and go to war only as a last resort, then you had better hope Romney and Ryan don’t get to set foreign policy because they will involve us in unending wars.

If you care about protecting the environment; preserving the national parks, forests and wildlife sanctuaries; and reducing our reliance on oil, then you had better hope that Romney and Ryan don’t get the power to turn over the setting of environmental and energy policy to the Koch brothers and oil companies.

If you are worried about the rise of income inequality and decline of the middle class, then you had better hope Romney and Ryan don’t get elected because their tax policies will guarantee that the rich will get even more favorable tax treatments, a further shrinking middle class will carry more of the burden of taxation and even greater number of Americans will slip into poverty from which they may never recover.

If you believe that our country’s greatness is built to a large part on the basis of the equal access of all Americans to a free public education, then you had better hope Romney and Ryan don’t get to set education policy because in the name of parental choice, they will impoverish the public school system in order to fund private and religious schools and turn access to education from a right to a privilege available only to the rich.

If you are a scientist or engineer or just someone who believes the federal government plays, and should play, a critical role in funding basic but often risky research, then you had better hope Romney and Ryan don’t get to set public policy, because federal support research and development will largely disappear.

If you support the arts and public broadcasting because you believe the value of human endeavor shouldn’t be measured solely by its profit potential and that the wealth of a nation shouldn’t be measured solely by the size of its GDP, then you don’t want Romney and Ryan to have the power to defund everything that doesn’t make the rich richer.

If you believe that most Americans aren’t “moochers” or “takers” to use the terms of those who worship Ayn Rand, but are the true “makers” of houses and roads and bridges and educated children and safe streets and quality products and reliable services, the people who with their hands and hearts and minds do the real work then you don’t want elect to office people like Romney and Ryan.  They believe that the only Americans with value are the real “takers” those who make their fortunes, not on the basis of their daily labor, but through gambling and speculation in the financial markets, usually with someone else’s money and with the guarantee that the government will bail them out should they lose their bets.  

What’s happening in the Pres Race?

Polls keep coming out showing a significant change in Romney’s standing both nationally and in the swing states.  There seems to be no doubt that Romney’s performance in the debate or, at least, the media celebration of his performance and criticism of Obama’s has made a difference.  I think the debate bounce for Romney will be offset by the September jobs numbers to some degree and that the final bounce will be 3% or less, maybe only 1% to 2%.  We will see.

Votamatic.org has some good charts showing what has happened since the debate, some of which was already happening.  Take a look at the charts below (or go here: http://votamatic.org/state-trend-detail-d-tier/) 

It is clear from the charts that Obama had a very good September because of his post-convention bounce.  That bounce was already fading somewhat and Romney’s debate performance or, if you will, Obama’s poor performance resulted in a dramatic decline for Obama.  We now have a race that looks more like where it was in early September.

Finally, look at August in the charts.  Obama was in decline.  If we have a repeat of August in October then all bets are off.  Obama will be in BIG, BIG trouble and we could have Willard in the White House.  Don’t panic yet, but WORRY—a lot.

Romney identifies the REAL threat

Romney has identified the true threat to our economy.  See video below or here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bZxs09eV-Vc&feature=player_embedded

More good news for Obama in the Sept job numbers

There is more good news for Obama in the September job numbers.

(A) Best election year job improvement since 1984

Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com took a look at changes in the unemployment rate during election years going back to 1952.  He finds a definite relationship between the growth/decline of unemployment and an incumbent President’s chance of being re-elected.  He finds good news for Obama in the new September job numbers.  “

Silver says, “The decline in unemployment under Mr. Obama this year since December is the largest in an election year since Ronald Reagan’s re-election bid, when it declined to 7.3 percent in Sept. 1984 from 8.3 percent in Dec. 1983.”  Unemployment declined from 8.5% to 7.8% under Obama.

Of course, writes Silver, “The drop in unemployment alone is no guarantee of re-election — there was also a considerable drop in unemployment in 1976, and Gerald Ford lost.”

Still, the improvement in the jobs picture comes at a good time for Obama.

Read more here: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/05/jobs-news-makes-obamas-case-easier/

(B) Jobs report likely to offset Romney’s debate performance gains

I would add one other thing.  Romney’s debate performance as I said in a post yesterday will probably give him a small bounce in the national and battle-state polls of maybe 1% to 2%.  Today’s job numbers will probably benefit Obama.  What we may see is that whatever gain Romney got from the debate has now been offset by the gain Obama got from the 7.8% unemployment figure.  So, the polls over the weekend may show that nothing much has changed.  The race may have tightened a little but that was already happening.  At least 95% of the people who will vote have already made up their minds and are unlikely to change their minds.  Some have already voted. The few undecided who will make up their minds at the last minute are likely to decide either not to vote or to just go ahead and cast their vote along party lines, Democratic leaners going for Obama and Republicans leaners for Romney.

Unemployment rate drops to 7.8%

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported this morning that the U.S. unemployment rate dropped to 7.8% in September, the lowest since Obama took office.  The private sector added 104,000 jobs and state and local government added 10,000 jobs.  Additionally, job gains in July and August were better than first reported.  July job gains were 181,000 up 141,000 first reported.  August jobs gains were 142,000 vs. 96,000 as first reported.

Romney fails basic qualification for president--Honesty

The first test any candidate for President of the United States should have to pass to even be considered for the job is truthfulness.  A candidate who will like to the American people to get elected will surely lie in office.  We deserve better from the people who would run for the most important office in the land. 

Romney demonstrated last night during the debate that he cannot meet even this most basic test.  Mitt Romney is a LIAR and, as such, deserves no further consideration for the job of Commander in Chief.

Here are Romney’s most outrageous debate LIES as listed by Rolling Stone:

LIE #1: "I don't have a $5 trillion tax cut." He does.

LIE #2: "I will not reduce the taxes paid by high-income Americans."  He will.

LIE #3: "We've got 23 million people out of work or [who have] stopped looking for work in this country."  We don’t.

LIE #4:  Obamacare "puts in place an unelected board that's going to tell people ultimately what kind of treatments they can have."  It does not.  In fact the board is forbidden by the law from doing what Romney suggests.

LIE #5: "Pre-existing conditions are covered under my plan."  They are not. 

Read more: http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/the-first-debate-mitt-romneys-five-biggest-lies-20121004#ixzz28MqoC5PA

How much will Obama suffer from the debate loss ?

How much damage will Obama suffer from his lackluster performance in last night’s debate?  Probably not much.  I expect Romney to get no more than a 1 to 2 percent post-debate bounce/gain in the national and battleground state polls.  Here is why.

According to Nate Silver’s analysis, the winner of a presidential debate typically gets very little bounce in the polls from winning the debate, usually only a little over 2 points.  Clinton did the best against Bush in 1992 in their second debate, getting a 4 point bounce. 

So, let’s assume that Romney will get a 3 point bounce from his performance which would be better than average bounce but not as much as Clinton.

Yesterday, Nate Silver had the average of the recent national polls giving Obama 51.8% to 46.8% for Romney or a 5 point lead.  A 3 point debate bounce would allow Romney to close the gap, but Obama would still lead by 2, 51.8% to 48.8%.  Statistically, Romney could get a tie but not much more.

Of course the Electoral College vote is what really matters.  Romney has to win 270 electoral votes to win and three states are critical—Florida, Ohio, and Virginia.  It is very unlikely that Romney can get the 270 electoral votes he needs without carrying at least two of these three states.  Currently Obama leads in all three states by a margin of 2.2% to 5.6%.

Let’s assume Romney gets a 3 point debate bounce against Obama in all three states.

Ohio: 

Now:   Obama 49.5%, Romney 43.8%--Obama leads by 5.6%

Post Debate:  Obama 49.5%, Romney 46.8%--Obama leads by 2.6%

Virginia:

Now Obama 48.2%, Romney 44.6%--Obama leads by 3.6%

Post Debate: Obama 48.2%, Romney 47.6%--Obama leads by 0.6%

Florida:

Now:  Obama 48.3%, Romney 46.1%--Obama leads by 2.2%

Post Debate: Obama 48.3%, Romney 49.1%--Romney by 0.8%

In short, if Romney gets a better than average post-debate bounce in the polls, he can close the gap possibly to a statistical tie nationally and in two of the three critical battleground states and move ahead of Obama in Florida but well within the margin of error.

Of course, this assumes that 100% of the roughly 5% undecided/persuadable actually watched the debate which isn’t likely.  According to a Washington Post/ABC News poll only 32% of persuadable/undecided voters were very interested in last night’s debate.  This suggests that most of the undecided didn’t tune in and thus never witnessed Romney’s performance. Lack of interest by nearly a third of the persuadable will most likely cost Romney 1 or 2 points from his possible 3 point gain. See: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/10/03/who-wont-be-watching-the-debate-persuadable-voters/

 Bottom Line:  I predict the polls will tighten over the next few days with Romney getting a 1% to 2% bounce.  Only time will tell whether he will be able to keep that gain or not.