Make your voice heard on the tax cuts

The Senate has passed and sent to the House legislation to extend the Bush tax cuts for families making $250,000 or less per year and individuals making $200,000 or less.  Obama has said he will sign this legislation to extend these tax cuts as soon as the House passes the legislation.  If Congress doesn't act by the end of the year, every American family’s taxes will automatically go up. A typical middle-class family of four would see their taxes rise by $2,200 in 2013. That does not have to happen and it won’t if enough Americans demand that Republicans in the House stop blocking passage of the legislation even though practically all members of Congress--Democrat and Republican--agree that this is not the tme to increase taxes on the middle class and that doing so could damage the U.S. economy and perhaps trigger a second recession.  Republicans are playing politics with this issue. We must tell them to stop.

Please go here if you are not sure how to contact your Congressman and make your voice heard: http://www.house.gov/representatives/find/ 

Enter your zip code to find out how to contact your Congressman.
Demand passage of the Senate bill today.

Please do this now. 

The Facts about taxes and small business job creators

Would the small business job creators be hurt by allowing the Bush tax cuts for those making over $250,000 expire?  The simple answer is NO.

According to a 2010 study by the Tax Policy Center, the average small business owner has a business income of less  than $40,000 per year so they would not be affected by an expiration of tax cuts for individuals making more than $200,000 or more or couples making more than $250,000.

Only about 2.5% of Americans reporting business income would see their taxes increase if the tax cuts for the wealthy were not extended.  These people are NOT mom-and-pop business owners.  They are largely high income doctors, lawyers, investors and people who own chains of businesses like grocery stores or dry cleaners and/or a lot of real estate.

Would higher taxes on these high income business owners be a job killer?  The evidence is mixed.  In fact, some research indicates that higher taxes on upper income individuals will encourage business formation and hiring because higher income individuals will create new businesses in order to shelter more of their income.  In other words, higher taxes can actually encourage investment and hiring.

Bottom line:  When someone tells you that raising taxes on the rich will be a job killer, they don't know what they are talking about.

Read the research here:

http://taxvox.taxpolicycenter.org/2010/08/05/the-bush-tax-cuts-and-small-business-what-we-know/

http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=904641

Republicans vs. Republicans: The battle for control begins

Watch this CNN interview with Gary Bauer taking on Jon Huntsman, Cathy McMorris Rodgers, and Carlos Gutierrez on the question of the future of the Republican Party particularly in regard to Hispanics.  If we are lucky, this internal debate will turn into an outright war and we will see the collapse of the unholy alliance between fiscal and social conservatives that has formed the foundation of the Republican Party all the way back to Reagan.  Watch below or at this link (http://cnn.com/video/?/video/bestoftv/2012/11/11/exp-sotu-panel-bauer-huntsman-gutierrez-bash-rodgers-republican-party.cnn      This is good stuff. 

Understanding the fiscal cliff

Below and here http://www.addictinginfo.org/2012/11/14/the-david-pakman-show-how-to-solve-the-fiscal-cliff-video/ is  one of the best explanations I have seen of the fiscal cliff, the options Democrats and Republicans are considering to fix it, and the option they should be pursuing but are not and will not pursue.  The video is an interview with Richard Wolff, Economist and Professor Emeritus at the University of Massachusetts.  Professor Wolff explains how we got into the fix we are in, what options are being considered and outlines what we should be doing if we truly wanted to fix the economy and the deficit in the long term.  Watch this.  It is really good.  Warning:  The quality isn’t very good but the content is excellelnt.

A Lesson About Deficits and the Top Tax Rate

Suppose you were President and faced with a growing deficit.  Suppose you chose to increase the top tax rate on the top earners by 6.6 percent to raise revenues to pay down that  deficit.  Suppose you did this even though Republican critics warned that such a tax increase would wreck the economy and be a job killer.  What would happen?

Well, that is exactly what Clinton did in 1993.  The chart below shows what happened.  Deficits turned to surpluses and the economy grew at an excellent average annual rate of 4 percent.  There is a lesson here for the Obama administration and the rest of us.

See the chart below or here: http://www.offthechartsblog.org/

Election Night Guide and My Final Predictions

Here is the timeline and what to expect and what to look for as you watch election coverage tonight along with my final predictions for who will win.

6PM:  Polls in some areas of IN and KY close.

7PM: Polls close in FL, GA, SC, VA, VT, parts of NH, remaining areas of IN and KY.

FL and VA are key states.  Romney needs to take both of these. Right now the race in FL is tied.  VA could also go either way, although Obama is ahead by 1 to 2 points.  If Obama wins VA, that would be a very bad sign for Romney.  Don’t expect a call in VA unless a candidate is up by 2 points or more.  If VA and FL are called for Obama that would all but signal the end for Romney.  I don’t expect that to happen.  I think Romney will win FL and Obama VA but the margin of victory will likely be slim for both and the networks probably won’t call FL or VA until sometime Wed.  Note: Some polls in FL don’t close until 8PM and Democratic-leaning areas of the state tend to be the last to report.  So, don’t be surprised at an early lead for Romney.

7:30PM:  Polls close in NC, WV and all important OH.  NC will probably go for Romney.  OH could decide the election.  If Obama wins OH, it will be very, very difficult for Romney to win regardless of what happens in FL and VA.  OH probably will be close, so don’t expect an early call.  If it is very close which is likely, then we may not know who won OH for days.

NOTE: Nate Silver at 538 now predicts that Obama will win OH by 3 to 4 points and gives Obama a 91% chance of winning.  Real Clear Politics average of the most recent polls in OH has Obama a 50% and Romney 47.1%, a 2.9% lead for Obama.  If these most recent projections and poll averages are right, Obama should have a good night.

8PM:  All polls in NH, FL, and PA will close along with a number of other states.  Looks like NH will go for Obama, but it could be close but most polls have Obama winning by 3 to 4 points.  We should find out more about how FL is shaping up after 8PM.   Romney has made noise about PA but Obama should win there.  Recent polls in PA have Obama winning by 4 to 6 points.  A surprise Romney win in PA would be a very bad sign for Obama.

8:30PM: Polls close in Ark.  Romney should win easily.

9PM: Polls close in a bunch more states but the ones to watch are WI and CO.  Obama should take WI.  Most polls have him up by 4 to 5 points there.  CO could be close but Obama is up in most polls by 2 points or more.  We may not know about CO until Wed since up to 10% of the vote may not be counted on election night.  An early call for Obama in CO would be very good news.  My bet is that we won’t find out who won CO until sometime Wed.

10PM:  Polls close in four more states including the important battleground states of IA and NV.  If Obama has taken OH and WI and/or VA or FL then IA and CO will be critical for Romney.  Obama wins in IA and NV along with wins in OH and some other battleground states would likely seal the election.   Most polls have Obama leading in IA by about 3 points.  He’s ahead by 4 to 5 points in NV. 

11PM: Polls close in the western states of CA, OR, WA.  Obama should win easily.  These are the states that could push him over the 300 electoral vote mark assuming he has done reasonably well in the battleground states of OH, WI, VA, FL, NH and so on.

Midnight/1AM: Polls close in Alaska and HI.  No surprises.  Romney gets Alaska, Obama HI.  No one will be still watching unless we are still waiting for a call on states like OH, FL, and VA.   We should pretty well know the outcome of the election unless at least two of these states haven’t been called because they are close and we have to wait until absentee ballots are counted.  In that case, expect the waiting to drag on for hours or days.  Also, if the election is close in these key battleground states we will probably see a ton of legal challenges.  Worst case scenario is that we see a replay of 2000 with weeks of back and forth.  Hope not but it could happen.

MY FINAL PREDICTIONS

I think Obama and Romney will split FL and VA with Romney barely taking FL and Obama barely taking VA.

OH looks like it is moving strongly in Obama’s direction, so I think he will win there.

Obama should win NH and have no problem winning PA.

The same is true of WI.

CO may be close but I think Obama will win there.

The same is true of IA.

Obama should take NV.

If Obama carries these battleground states, he should win re-election with 302 electoral votes. 

UPDATE: Election Forecast

Eleven of 16 forecast models tracked by the Attack Democrat predict that Obama will win re-election even if he loses key battleground states such as FL, VA, CO, and NH.  Most project that Obama will carry OH. Forecasters who allocate all states to the leading candidate (No Toss Ups) project that Obama will receive a minimum of 281 electoral votes to a maximum of 332.

The Attack Democrat's last projection prior to election day is that Obama will win re-election with about 301 electoral votes to around 237 for Romney.  The Attack Democrat very much hopes he is right.

UPDATE: Electoral Vote Count as of today.

The Attack Democrat is now tracking 16 election forecasts.  Eleven of the 16 project that Obama will win more than the 270 electoral votes he needs to be re-elected getting 271 to as many as 332 electoral votes.  Three forecasters who do not allocate toss-up states project that Obama will win even if he fails to carry FL, VA, CO, and NH.   Two of the remaining forecasters show Obama winning if he picks up either OH or FL.   

The Attack Democrat now projects that Obama will win with about 301 electoral votes to about 237 for Romney.  If the polls are accurate, it appears very unlikely that Romney can win unless he can carry at least two of the three states of FL, VA, and OH.  FL and OH are particularly critical to any chance Romney has.  Right now Obama is leading by around 3 points in OH.  Obama and Romney are essentially tied in FL and VA.

Jobs up 171,000, Unemployment 7.9% in October

This from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ jobs report for October.  There was very little change from September.

·         Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 171,000

·         Unemployment rate was essentially unchanged at 7.9 percent

·         Employment rose in professional and business services, health care, and retail trade. 

·         Hurricane Sandy had no discernible effect on the employment and unemployment .

·         Both the unemployment rate (7.9 percent) and the number of unemployed persons (12.3       million) were essentially unchanged in October, following declines in September

·        There was little or no change in the rates for adult men (7.3 percent), adult women (7.2        percent), teenagers (23.7 percent), whites (7.0 percent), and Hispanics (10.0 percent).   The jobless rate for Asians was 4.9 percent in October (not seasonally adjusted), down from 7.3 percent a year earlier.

·         The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was little changed at 5.0 million. These individuals accounted for 40.6 percent of

·         the unemployed.

·         The civilian labor force rose by 578,000 to 155.6 million

·         The labor force participation rate edged up to 63.8 percent.

 Read more here: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm