Sunday, April 4, 2010

Likely outcome of the 2010 election as of now

Someone asked me about projections concerning the upcoming elections and whether the Democrats would lose control of the House, Senate or both. Here are some current projections from Election Projection. See


Currently Democrats have 51 seats, Republicans have 48 seats and there are 2 independents that normally vote with the Democrats.

Projection: Republicans will pick up 7 seats. North Dakota is almost certain to go Republican. It is likely that Blanche Lincoln (Dem, Arkansas) will lose. In Colorado, Delaware, Indiana, Nevada, and Pennsylvania, Republicans have a good chance to take the seat as of now.

Likely outcome: Democrats will control 50 seats, Republicans will control 48, and there will still be 2 Independents. Assuming the Independents continue to caucus with the Democrats, Democrats will retain control over the Senate but just barely.


Currently Democrats have 257 seats, Republicans have 178.

Projection: Republicans will pick up 19 seats.

Likely outcome: Democrats will control 238 seats and Republicans will control 197.

House appears to be pretty safe to remain in the control of the Democrats. However 11 of the 19 seats projected to switch to Republican are open seats—Democratic incumbent isn’t running again—and we don’t know yet who the candidates will be. A strong Democratic candidate a extreme conservative, Tea-Party Republican could pick up enough Indpendent votes to retain the seat. We’ll just have to wait and see.

Visit the Election Projection site for more detail on what Senate and House seats are up from grabs.


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