Saturday, May 14, 2011

Early Forecast: Obama will win re-election in 2012

Curious as to why so many potential Republican candidates for president seem to be prepared to sit out the 2012 election.  Maybe it is because, as things stand now, Obama has a pretty good chance of winning regardless of the Republican nominee.

If the presidential election were held today, Barack Obama would win re-election with 53.5% of the popular vote.  That’s the consensus of six  different forecast models including the “Keys to the White House” model.  The Keys Model has correctly predicted the winner in every presidential election since 1984, usually a year or more in advance of the election with a margin of error of less than 2%.  The Keys Model predicts Obama will win by an even wider margin than the consensus prediction, garnering 55.3% of the popular votes as things stand now.

The Keys Model uses 13 Keys list below with the 2012 coding as of January 2011.

NOTE: True statements are favorable to the party in control of the White House retaining control.  False statements suggest the opposition party will win.  The formula for calculating the likely popular vote of the INCUMBENT party is as follows:

Incumbent % = 36.6 + (1.8 x # True Codes).  Thus:  Obama %=37.3+ (1.8 x 10) = 55.3%

 The 13 Keys to the White House and their codings for the 2012 election as of 5/14 2011
 Threshold condition
2012 coding 
 Party Mandate
 After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections.
 There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination.
 The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president.
 Third party
 There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
 Short-term economy
 The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
 Long-term economy
 Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
 Policy change
 The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
 Social unrest
 There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
 The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
military failure
 The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
military success
 The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
 Incumbent charisma
 The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
 Challenger charisma
 The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. 

Note that I changed Key #11 from False to True as a result of the successful operation against bin Laden.  Note also that most of the favorable/True statements are NOT LIKELY to change for Obama.  The few areas that might include #5 (the economy slips back into a recession) or #10 (a major military or foreign policy failure such as, for example, a successful terrorist attack).

1 comment:

terrondt said...

i am glad i found your blog. i have been a keys to the white fan for 20 years and believe in the system. i am a liberal dem who likes this forcast but in 2004 i did not like the forcast but accepted the call of the model that year. bush only had a 4-key deficit, 2 short to perdict defeat. obama has 2 spare keys to fall and he still can win. i agree with your 3-key deficit for next year. again thanks.