Friday, June 17, 2011

First forecasting model shows Obama losing

Up until now all of the forecasting models we have been tracking for the 2012 have shown Obama winning re-election.  Now we have a forecasting model showing Obama losing.  The Bread & Peace model developed by Douglas Hibbs uses two variables: (1) the weighted-average growth of per capita real disposable income over the incumbent’s term, and (2) cumulative US military fatalities owing to unprovoked, hostile deployments of American armed forces in foreign conflicts.  Currently the Bread & Peace model predicts that Obama will receive on 46.2% of the popular vote in 2012 and thus lose.

The good news for Obama is that six other forecasting models show him winning re-election with a popular vote share ranging from 52.7% to 55% of the popular vote.

Just for Fun

Ever wonder how you might do in a head-to-head contest with Obama for the presidency?  Now you have the chance to find out.  Polyvote has posted a calculator using the PollyBio forecasting model that has correctly predicted 27 or the last 29 U.S. Presidential Election winners.  The PollyBio model uses 59 biographical cues that are expected to have an impact on the chances of a candidate being elected.  To find out how well the model predicts you would do running against Obama, click on the link below and answer a few questions.  Polly will calculate the results for you.  Try it.

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