Thursday, June 9, 2011

New Election Forecast: Obama wins in 2012 with 55% of popular vote

A new update of the Keys to the White House model for forecasting the outcome of presidential elections predicts that Obama will win re-election with 55% of the popular vote. 

The Keys to the White House model has correctly forecast the popular vote winner of all seven presidential elections from 1984 to 2008, usually months or even years prior to Election Day. 

The Keys forecasting model scores the incumbent party on 13 keys. When five or fewer keys are false, the incumbent party wins; when any six or more are false, the challenging party wins.  The formula for calculating the incumbent party candidate’s likely percentage of the vote is as follows:

V = 36.6 + 1.8L
V = the percentage of the two-party split going to the incumbent
L = the number of Keys favoring the incumbent party

Current calculation is:

Obama % of Vote = 36.6 + (1.8 x 10) = 36.6 + 18 = 54.6%

The table below shows the 13 keys and current scoring.

 The 13 Keys to the White House and their codings for the 2012 election
 Threshold condition
2012 coding 
 Party Mandate
 After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats inthe U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the previousmidterm elections.
 There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination.
 The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president.
 Third party
 There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
 Short-term economy
 The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
 Long-term economy
 Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
 Policy change
 The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
 Social unrest
 There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
 The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
 Foreign/military failure
 The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
 Foreign/military success
 The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
 Incumbent charisma
 The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
 Challenger charisma
 The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. 

No comments: