Thursday, July 21, 2011

Math doesn’t look good for passage of any debt ceiling deal in House

Steve Benen at Washington Monthly took a look at the vote count for possible passage of some kind of debt ceiling deal in the House.  He says it doesn’t look good.  There simply may be just too many nut cases in the House to get anything passed.  Here is his vote count.  Let’s hope he has it wrong, otherwise we are in big, big trouble.

Let’s do a little arithmetic. It will take 217 votes to pass a bill in the House right now (it would ordinarily be 218, but there are a couple of vacancies). There are 240 House Republicans. If 80 GOPers refuse to even consider the McConnell/Reid compromise, Plan B would need 57 House Democrats. That’s a pretty large number for a center-right agreement that includes zero new revenue.

If Walsh succeeds and the Suicide Squad reaches the 100-signature goal, Plan B would need 77 House Democratic votes for a bill Dems really aren’t going to like.
What about the Gang of Six plan? Even if it could be crafted and passed in the Senate quickly — I suspect that’s literally not possible — a growing number of House Republican leaders are concluding it’s just not right-wing enough to pass the lower chamber.

So, where does that leave us? The House won’t pass a clean bill; it won’t pass a Grand Bargain; it won’t pass the Gang of Six proposal; and at least 80 House Republicans are prepared to try to kill the Plan B compromise.
And the clock runs out in just 13 days.

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