Forecast: Newt 49% chance of winning Iowa

FiveThirtyEight says there is a 49.6% probability that Newt Gingrich will win the Iowa caucuses likely obtaining 25.1% of the vote.  Paul is projected  to come in second with 20.7% with Romney third at 15.6%.  FiveThirtyEight cautions that “the confidence intervals are extremely wide. In Mr. Gingrich’s case, for instance, the 90 percent confidence interval runs from 9 percent of the vote to about 40 percent of the vote. This is simply a reflection of how inaccurate primary polls have been in the past, as well as the wide range of developments that are possible over the final three weeks of the campaign.”  See the Low Range and High Range in the table below.

Read more about the forecast here:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/12/13/our-first-iowa-forecast-gingrich-leads-paul-gaining-race-still-wide-open/