PollyVote recently surveyed 15 experts on U.S. presidential elections from a variety of colleges and universities asking them to predict the likely outcome of the 2012 election. Twelve of the 15 experts predicted that Obama would win a narrow victory. Forecasts of Obama’s vote ranged from a high of 52% to a low of 48%. The average forecast was that Obama would get 50.7% of the vote.
This is the third presidential election in which PollyVote has conducted such a survey. In 2004 and 2008, the expert panel came closer to forecasting the actual vote than other forecasters this early in the race.
Read the results here: http://pollyvote.forecastingprinciples.com//