Political analyst Charlie Cook says “The economy may not be
as big a liability for President Obama on Election Day as many Republicans had
assumed.” It depends, says Cook, on what
the unemployment rate looks like in the fall.
Cook says:
The latest Blue Chip
Economic Indicators survey of 56 top economists forecasts an 8.7 percent
unemployment rate for calendar year 2012 and an 8.5 rate for the fourth
quarter, when Election Day occurs.
My rule of thumb has
been that if unemployment is near 9 percent on Election Day, President Obama
would very likely lose. If it’s near 8 percent, he would likely win. But if
it’s around 8.5 percent, the race would be a toss-up. Worthy of note, the Blue
Chip survey was conducted on January 4-5, before the Bureau of Labor Statistics
released the December unemployment numbers that dropped to 8.5 percent from an
upwardly revised 8.7 percent in November. This means that the jobless rate has
inched downward four months in a row, from 9.1 percent in August to 8.5 percent
in December…
The 10 most
pessimistic economists in the Blue Chip Indicators survey think that
unemployment will average about 9 percent this year. That would present Obama
with a steep uphill climb. Conversely, the 10 most optimistic analysts predict
an 8 percent unemployment rate for the year. If that comes to pass, Obama might
as well break out the champagne.
So, according to Cook, we should watch the unemployment
numbers closely. If the current downward
trend continues and unemployment is drifting toward 8% from the current 8.5%, then Obama
will get four more years regardless of who the Republicans nominate. If the unemployment rate stays pretty much
the same (around 8.5%), then the election will be a close one. If the trend reverses and we are looking at
something close to 9% when voters go to the polls or unemployment is trending
toward 9%, then Obama is toast.
Read Cook here:
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