Friday, February 10, 2012

New Forecast: Obama would win if election held today

Election Projection has updated its forecast of the presidential election.  As of today, Obama would carry 27 states and win the election with 332 electoral votes.  (270 electoral votes are need to win.)  Romney would carry 24 states with 206 electoral votes.  Obama would beat Romney by 2.6% in the popular vote 50.5% to 47.9%.

Obama would also win in a contest against Rick Santorum and by the same electoral vote margin—332 to 206.  However, he would do better against Santorum in the popular vote winning by 4%.

Election Projection notes: “The bottom line remains as it was always going to be in this election.  If the GOP nominates a credible candidate, this election will be a referendum on Obama's administration, and that will be driven by the state of the economy. Lately we're starting to learn two things in that regard. First, the economy is starting to look like it will be moving forward between now and November - a good sign for Obama. And second, Rick Santorum is starting to look like a credible choice for the nomination - a good sign for Santorum.”

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