Friday, March 30, 2012

UPDATE: Forecast of 2012 election

Election Projection [EP][ now has Obama beating Romney by 126 electoral votes—332 Obama to 206 Romney.  270 electoral votes are needed to win.  The last time I reported the EP projections, they had Obama with 303 electoral votes to 235 for Romney.  Obama’s expanded lead comes largely from Florida moving from Weak Romney to Weak Obama.  Also, EP now says Obama is ahead of Romney in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia, all key battleground states. EP now has Obama winning 50.3% of the popular vote to 48.2% for Romney.

EP has Republicans taking control of the Senate.  EP says Republicans would control the Senate with 52 seats to 46 seats for Democrats and 2 Independents.
EP now says Republican Brown will retain his seat in Massachusetts, defeating Democratic challenger Elizabeth Warren. 

EP now projects that there will be little change in the House with Republicans holding 243 seats to 192 Democratic Party seats.  Currently Democrats have 193 seats to 242 for Republicans, so the makeup of the House would stay pretty much the same.

No comments: