Wednesday, March 14, 2012

Update on the 2012 race for President

There are a number of pieces of good news for Obama and the Democrats in the latest poll numbers and one poll that seems to be fatally flawed.

Obama leads Romney and Santorum

A Pew Research poll released today shows Obama defeating Romney 54% to 42% and Santorum 57% to 39%.  Obama supporters are more likely than Romney or Santorum supporters to describe themselves as STONG supporters of Obama.  Most voters (59%) think Obama will beat Romney, 68% think he would beat Santorum.  Nearly a third of Republicans think Obama will beat Romney—43% think Obama would beat Santorum.  Read more here:

Obama approval rating holding at 50%

Pew shows Obama with a 50% approval rating with only 41% disapproving.  That’s in contrast to a recent CBS/NYT poll that showed Obama’s approval rating down to 41%.  The Pew polls seems to be more in line with other national polls.  Likely reason is that CBS/NYT has more undecided whereas the other polls are probably probing a little more to find out how people are leaning.  Here is a graph from showing the other results.  Read more here:

Democratic Party viewed more favorably than Republican

49% of voters view the Democratic Party favorably visit just 36% who have a favorable view of the Republican Party.  Democrats have significantly improved their rating with voters since April of last year when only 38% of voters had a favorable view of Democrats.  Voters’ view of Republicans has remained basically unchanged—It was 37% favorable in April 2010.

Obama leads in electoral vote count

Election Projection (EP) says Obama would win the election if it were held today, carrying 25 states with 285 electoral votes (270 are needed to win).  Romney would carry 26 states with 253 electoral votes—that’s an improvement for Romney since EPs last update that had Obama at 303 and Romney at 235.  Biggest change was a flip in Ohio from Weak Obama to Weak Romeny.  Read more here:

No comments: