Wednesday, October 31, 2012

Obama ahead in 4 of 6 new forecasts—1 decider to come

Four out of six popular non-scientific forecasting models predict that Obama will win election.  The results of one model that has picked the winner since 1936 will not be available until November 5th or late November 4th.  Here are the models and their predictions.

Models predicting Obama will win:
Seminole model
Republicans take Florida when Miami beats the Florida State Seminoles.  Democrats win Florida when FSU wins.  FSU beat Miami on Oct. 20th.  Florida is a critical battleground state this year.

World Series Model
Democrats win when the National League team wins.  San Francisco won.

Children’s Model
Scholastic Magazine’s poll of children almost always picks the winner.  The children picked Obama this year.

Halloween Mask Model
The number of masks sold for each candidate has predicted the winner since 1996.  Obama’s likeness is outselling Romney’s by 60% to 40%.

Models predicting Romney will win:
The Squirrel Model
Gnocchi, a squirrel from North Charleston, SC, predicts ate nine peanuts from a Romney bowl and only five from an Obama bowl.  Gnocchi went for Obama in 2008 but has switched parties this year.

The Height Model
The taller candidate usually wins.   Romney is an inch taller than Obama.

The Decider:   The Redskins Model
Since 1936, the incumbent candidate has won when the Redskins won their final home game before the election.  The Redskins play the Carolina Panthers on November 4th.
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