David Byler at Real Clear Politics has an interesting chart
that suggests what we should look for in the Clinton/Trump polls over the next
30 days or so. Byler’s chart is based
upon work by Christopher Wlezien and Robert Erikson, authors of The Timeline of Presidential Elections.
Here’s the chart:
The chart shows how far the polls are off from the final
polling average based upon the number of days to the election. Notice the solid line. As we get closer to the election, the polls
get more accurate-closer to the final average.
There are more dots (polls) below the trend line as we get closer to the
election. Many polls will be as much as 7 to 8 points off 60 days out, but by 30
days out, most polls are within 3 to 4 points of the final result.
What does this mean?
Hilary is ahead 5
points now, according the RCP average.
That means Trump has time to close the gap. But, he has to close it by the end of
September.
If Trump can close the gap to 3 points or less by October 1st,
he has a chance of going ahead by election day.
On the other hand, if Clinton is ahead by 4 points or more then Trump’s
chance of catching up with her by election day is slim, at least based upon
historical polling data. There just will
not be enough time to move the polls in his favor.
Watch the RCP
Average, Clinton was up, on the average, by as much as 7 or 8 points in
early August. It is close to 5 points as
of today. She needs to keep this lead
for the next month, at least. If her lead
starts drifting down to 4 points or less, she could be in real trouble. If she keeps her lead above 4 points, then it
is going to be really difficult for Trump to catch up and pull ahead.
This election is a LONG WAY from being over. Trump could STILL WIN. Keep donating money and working for Hilary.
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