Sunday, August 28, 2016

State of the Race as of Late August


As of late August, all 10 of the forecasters we are tracking are predicting that Hilary Clinton would win the election if it were held today.  Six of the 10 project that she would win 340 or more electoral votes which would be slightly less than Obama's margin of victory in 2008 but better than his winning margin in 2012.  Click on the name of each forecaster for more information on how the forecast models and what they include.

NOTE: In the last month, Clinton has increased her electoral vote share in almost all of these models while Trump has lost votes as more toss-up states have been moved to Clinton's column.


Late August
Forecaster Clinton Trump Toss-Up
Frontloading HQ 347 191   538
Sabato’s Crystal Ball 348 190   538
FiveThirtyEight 340 198   538
Election Graphs 347 191   538
Cook Political Report 272 190 76 538
NPR 273 174 91 538
ABC 275 191 72 538
NBC 288 174 76 538
Princton Election Consortium 340 198   538
Election Projection 363 175   538






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