Hillary Clinton’s lead over Trump in the national polls two weeks from next Tuesday will tell us a lot about whether she will win.
Going all the way back to 2000, the average error of the polls 21 days before the election (how far they were off from predicting the final outcome of the presidential race) is 3.6 percent. In other words, based upon the history of polling over the last four elections, Clinton can be said to be in good shape to win if her AVERAGE lead in the polls is MORE than 3.6 points. If her lead is 3.6 points or LESS on average, then the race is very likely tied and anything could happen. Trump could win.
See: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-state-of-the-polls-2016/for the historical data.
Tuesday, October 11, is 21 days prior to the election. Be sure to check Clinton’s average lead in the polls that day at Real Clear Politics. Check this link.
If Clinton’s lead on October 11 is less than 3.6 points, there may be trouble ahead.
NOTE: Clinton’s lead today, according to the RealClearPolitics average is 3.0 points. That’s close, but not enough.