Tuesday, November 8, 2016

What to look for as you watch the election coverage tonight

Harry Enten at FiveThirtyEight.com has posted an excellent guide to what to look for as the returns come in tonight.  Read Enten’s explanations of what to look for and why here: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-to-watch-election-night/

Here is a brief summary of key points in Enten’s guide to the election coverage.

6 PM
Enten says a quick call of the Senate race in Indiana former Sen. Evan Bayh could signal that the Democrats will regain control of the Senate.

7 PM
Florida—Clinton should have an early lead. If she doesn’t, that could be a bad sign.
Georgia—A “too close to call” would be a bad sign for Trump
South Carolina—A 25% turnout by Blacks would be a good sign nationally for Clinton
Virginia—A “too early to call” would be a good sign for Clinton

8 PM
Illinois—Look for an early call for Democrat Tammy Duckworth. A “too close to call” could be bad sign for Democrats gaining control of the Senate.
Maine—If the statewide race is called early for either candidate, that’s a good sign for the winning candidate nationwide and a bad sign for the loser.
Michigan—Clinton needs a strong turnout in Wayne Country/Detroit. A low Black turnout is a bad sign for her.
Pennsylvania—A “too early to call” would be a good sign for Clinton.

9 PM
New Mexico—Clinton needs large margins in Santa Fe County and Bernalillo County around Alburquerque.  Close results in these counties could signal trouble ahead for her in regard to winning the state.
Wisconsin—Trump should be leading in early returns.  If he is behind, he is in big trouble.

10 PM
Iowa—Clinton could be in trouble if she does not have an early lead.
Nevada—A Clinton win by 10 points or more in Clark County (Las Vegas) is a good sign for her. A win of less than 10 points in that county would be a bad sign.
Utah—Clinton needs to win big in Salt Lake City (Salt Lake County) and in Park City (Summit County) or she may not be able to take Utah.

11 PM
If Clinton has a good night, the race should be called by 11:15 or 11:30.  If it is still too close, it may be a long night.

Hopefully, we will be able to break out the champagne by mid-night or shortly thereafter.

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