UPDATE: CLINTON WILL WIN

Final Consensus: Clinton will win the election

Final projections for the outcome of the election have been coming in all day today.  All 14 of the forecasters we are tracking project that Hilary Clinton will win the election with a minimum of 273 electoral votes and a maximum of 323.

The Attack Democrat is projecting Clinton will receive 322 electoral votes. Three other models—Frontloading HQ, Sabato’s Crystal Ball and the New York Times are projecting the same.  Pollyvote, which has one of the best track records in predicting the outcome of Presidential elections, has Clinton gathering a total of 323 electoral votes.

There seems little doubt that Clinton will become the next President of the United States.  The only way Trump can win is if the polls are not just wrong, but way, way off the mark AND every forecasting model is badly flawed.  That could be true but the chances are not very good.

Some states still too close to call

Five forecasters that we track are still unable to project the winner of some states calling them toss-ups at this late date.  Four out of these five say Florida and North Carolina could go either way.  Three of the five add Arizona, Ohio and Georgia as toss-ups.

The consensus view of our forecasters is that Clinton has locked in at least 268 electoral votes, just two short of winning. Additionally, she has better than a 50% chance of carrying New Hampshire (4 Evs), Nevada (6 Evs), Florida (29 Evs) and North Carolina (15 Evs), bringing here total too a possible 333 Evs, about the same as Obama in 2012 but less than the 365 Evs Obama won in 2008.

The consensus view of our forecasters is that Trump starts with 151 Evs and has a better than 50/50 chance of taking Mississippi (6 Evs), Arizona (11 Evs), Nebraska-2^nd (1 Ev), Georgia (16 Evs), Utah (6 Evs), Iowa (6 Evs), and Ohio (18 Evs).  If he won all of these, Trump would only have 215 Evs, 55 short of the number he needs to win.

The Attack Democrat projects that Clinton will win the election with 322 but not less than 272 electoral votes.

Here are some other projections of a Clinton win with from 273 to 340 electoral votes.

Forecast	Thur	Fri	Sat	Sun	Mon	Tues
Frontloading HQ	340	340	340	340	322
Sabato’s Crystal Ball	293	293	293	293	322
FiveThirtyEight	294	297	291	291	297
Election Graphs	303	285	302	323	323
Cook Political Report	278	278	278	278	278
ABC	278	274	274	274	278
NBC	274	274	274	274	274
Princeton Consortium	317	312	312	314	313
Election Projection	288	288	284	284	302
New York Times Upshot	322	322	322	322	322
Electoral-Vote.com	317	317	317	317	317
PollyVote	323	323	323	323	323
Huffington Post	317	302	302	273	273
Daily Kos	323	323	319	312	313
The Attack Democrat	303	302	302	322	322