Tuesday, December 20, 2011

New Republican primary forecasts

Nate Silver at Five Thirty Eight has updated his forecasts for the initial Republican primaries.  Silver has Paul winning Iowa with Romney carrying New Hampshire.  He has Gingrich leading in South Carolina and Florida.  See the table below and at this link: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/12/19/paul-moves-into-lead-in-iowa-forecast/



Republican Primary Projections

Updated Dec. 19, 2011 at 12:45 PM ET
IowaVOTE
PROJECTION
CHANCE
OF WIN
Ron Paul25.7%52%
Mitt Romney21.328
Rick Perry14.17
Full Iowa Details
New HampshireVOTE
PROJECTION
CHANCE
OF WIN
Mitt Romney36.5%75%
Ron Paul19.912
Newt Gingrich19.010
Full New Hampshire Details
South CarolinaVOTE
PROJECTION
CHANCE
OF WIN
Newt Gingrich36.8%Too early
Mitt Romney23.0
Michele Bachmann10.6
Full South Carolina Details
FloridaVOTE
PROJECTION
CHANCE
OF WIN
Newt Gingrich48.4%Too early
Mitt Romney26.4
Ron Paul7.0
Full Florida Details

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