New Republican primary forecasts

Nate Silver at Five Thirty Eight has updated his forecasts for the initial Republican primaries.  Silver has Paul winning Iowa with Romney carrying New Hampshire.  He has Gingrich leading in South Carolina and Florida.  See the table below and at this link: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/12/19/paul-moves-into-lead-in-iowa-forecast/

Republican Primary Projections

Updated Dec. 19, 2011 at 12:45 PM ET

Iowa	VOTE PROJECTION	CHANCE OF WIN
Ron Paul	25.7%	52%
Mitt Romney	21.3	28
Rick Perry	14.1	7

Full Iowa Details

New Hampshire	VOTE PROJECTION	CHANCE OF WIN
Mitt Romney	36.5%	75%
Ron Paul	19.9	12
Newt Gingrich	19.0	10

Full New Hampshire Details

South Carolina	VOTE PROJECTION	CHANCE OF WIN
Newt Gingrich	36.8%	Too early
Mitt Romney	23.0
Michele Bachmann	10.6

Full South Carolina Details

Florida	VOTE PROJECTION	CHANCE OF WIN
Newt Gingrich	48.4%	Too early
Mitt Romney	26.4
Ron Paul	7.0

Full Florida Details

Read more here: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/12/19/paul-moves-into-lead-in-iowa-forecast/