Tuesday, January 31, 2012

Obama vs Romney as it stands now

Election Projection (EP) predicts that if the election were held today in a contest between Obama and Romney, Obama would win with 272 electoral votes to 266 for Romney.  That puts the race VERY close. 

Key states to watch are: Florida (29 electoral votes), Ohio (18 electoral votes), and Virginia (13 electoral votes).  Those states are key to a Romney win.  He cannot afford to lose ANY of these three and have a chance of winning as things stand today.  Right now EP says these three states are “Weak Romney,” meaning they could shift to Obama.

On the other hand, Obama’s lead depends upon six states that EP says are now “Weak Obama”: PA (20 electoral votes), Minnesota (10 electoral votes), Colorado (9 electoral votes), Iowa and Nevada (6 electoral votes each) and New Hampshire (4 electoral votes).  Obama could lose several of the states (other than PA) provided he picked up one or more of FL, OH, or VA.

As we have known for some time, the likely mix-and-match path to victory (mix of states need to reach the magical 270 electoral votes that mean victory), is somewhat easier for Obama since he starts with a larger base and has more possible paths to victory.  On the other hand, any Republican challenger really can't afford to lose more than one or two of the key battleground states like FL, OH, or VA to have a chance of getting to 270. 

Read more about the EP projection and individual state poll upon which it is based here:

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