Wednesday, February 8, 2012

Obama leads Romney in Virginia

Virginia is a key swing state in the presidential election.  Republicans will have a hard time beating Obama if they cannot carry Florida, Ohio and Virginia.  For the first time a respected poll is showing that Obama has gained a lead over Romney in a head-to-head matchup in Virginia.  A Quinnipiac University poll released today has Obama leading Romney 47% to 43%. That’s well outside the margin of error of 2.5%.  In December, Romney was leading/tied with Obama at 44% Romney to 42% Obama.  What is interesting about this poll is that “Virginia voters still give the president a slightly negative 46 - 49 percent job approval rating. They split 46 - 48 percent on whether Obama deserves a second term in the Oval Office, but that represents a serious improvement from December when voters said 53 - 41 percent he did not deserve four more years.”

Quinnipiac says: “In the Obama-Romney matchup, independent voters favor the president 45 - 41 percent, compared to a 41 - 41 percent tie in December. A gender gap is opening up as women shift to the president, backing him 52 - 40 percent, compared to a 43 - 45 percent split in December. Men back Romney 47 - 43 percent, compared to 43 - 42 percent in December.”

This is more good news for Obama and more BAD news for Republicans, particularly Romney.  If Romney cannot carry Virginia against Obama, then his entire argument for being the nominee for Republicans comes into question.   

Stay tuned.  There are a number of signs out there that Obama is gaining and that the Republicans may end up in a cat fight that does their party real damage.  And then, there is the issue of the economy which may be slowly improving.  And, the Catholic church/Republican temper tantrum about the mandate for contraception coverage may blow up to do damage Republicans much more than Obama.  Right now, the Obama folks must be feeling pretty good.

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