Monday, April 16, 2012

UPDATE: 2012 Election forecasts

Presidential race

As of today, Election Projection has Obama leading Romney with 303 electoral votes to 235.  That’s an increase for Romney over the past week largely due to Florida moving from Weak Obama to Weak Romney.  Obama still leads in the important battle ground states of Ohio and Virginia but his lead is by less than 5% in these states (Weak).

Real Clear Politics (RCP) has Obama leading Romney 227 electoral votes to 170.  That’s not enough to win.  He needs 270.   RCP has 11 states as toss ups including the important battle ground states of Florida, Ohio and Virginia.  Obama probably needs to carry at least one if not two of these states.  Romney definitely needs to carry two of these states and maybe all three.

Senate race

Election Projection has the Senate race remaining the same as last week.  Republicans are expected to gain control with 50 seats to 48 for Democrats and 2 Independents.  Democrat Warren is ahead of Republican Brown in Mass but only barely.  That race remains tight.

House race

Election Projection expects Republicans to retain control of the House with 244 seats to 191 for the Democrats. 

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