Now that it seems Romney is all set to become the Republican
nominee for president, we are beginning to hear more speculation about Romney’s
choice of a running mate. Larry J.
Sabato, Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley at Sabato’s Crystal Ball have come up
with a list of possible GOP Vice-Presidential candidates ranked by first tier
to fourth tier.
First Tier: Rob Portman (Senator, OH), Marco Rubio
(Senator, FL), Bobby Jindal (Governor, LA), or Paul Ryan (Rep., WI)
I think Rubio and Portman are real possibilities
if for no other reason than Romney desperately needs to carry either Ohio or
Florida and perhaps both if he is to have any chance to win. Rubio adds the plus of being Hispanic as well
as being from an important swing state.
However, Rubio might very likely take a pass on running on the Romney
ticket and prefer to wait for 2016. If
Romney loses, which is a real possibility, Rubio would be a prime candidate for
the GOP presidential slot next time.
That leaves Portman. Ohio is an
important swing state like Florida and Portman has budget experience (Former
OMB director) which would fit with Romney’s “we can fix the economy message.” I don’t see Jindal or Ryan as being likely
picks. Jindal doesn’ offer any help with
must-win states. Ryan would inject too
much controversy when it comes to popular programs like Medicare and Social
Security.
Second Tier: Chris
Christie (Governor, NJ), Jeb Bush (Fmr. Governor, FL), Tim Pawlenty (Fmr.
Governor, MN), Bob McDonnell (Governor, VA), Mitch Daniels (Governor, IN), or
Mike Huckabee (Fmr. Governor, AR)
I don’t see Christie taking the offer for the
same reason Rubio might turn it down. If
Romney loses, Christie has a good chance in 2016. If Jeb Bush wasn’t a Bush, he might be a good
pick but I don’t think Romney or any of the powers in the GOP want to remind
the voters of George W. Bush. Pawlenty
is a possibility but only as a lack luster place holder, same for Daniels. McDonnell would bring trouble with women
voters and Romney doesn’t need any more trouble with them, he has enough
already. Huckabee would remind voters of
the right wing Republican extremism on social issues. Romney is going to be doing everything he can
to distance himself for right-wing social talk, even his own.
Third Tier: Kelly
Ayotte (Senator, NH), Brian Sandoval (Governor, NV), Susana Martinez (Governor,
NM), Bob Corker (Senator, TN) or Condoleezza Rice (Fmr. Secretary of State)
I don’t think either Ayotte, Sandoval or
Corker would bring much to the ticket, although Sandoval is Hispanic. Rice has said she isn’t interested and has
the Bush connection. Martinez might help
with the Hispanic vote but like Rice has said she is not interested.
Fourth Tier: Pat
Toomey (Senator, PA), John Thune (Senator, SD), Rand Paul (Senator, KY), Luis
Fortuno (Governor, PR), Cathy McMorris Rodgers (Rep., WA), Richard Burr
(Senator, NC), David Petraeus (Director of CIA), or J.C. Watts (Fmr. Rep., OK)
I think these are all real long shots. Most wouldn’t bring anything to the
ticket. Romney isn’t going to want to
talk about Iraq and Afghanistan when the electorate is fed up with wars. So, Petraeus is out plus I doubt if he is
interested.
Bottom line: Right now I would bet the offer would go to
Rubio. If he turns it down, which is
likely, Portman will be the pick. And
then of course, Romney could pull a Palin, which would be just great by
me. Nah, he wouldn’t be that stupid would he? Let's hope so.
To see the key advantages and disadvantages these possible
candidates would bring to the Romney team according to Sabato, et. al., go
here:
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