Wednesday, June 20, 2012

Is Obama really leading Romney by 13 points?

Has Obama pulled 13 points ahead of Romney in head-to-head match up?  A new national poll says so.  Too early to tell if this new poll is accurate.

A new Bloomberg poll conducted June 15-18 has Obama leading Romney by 13 points, 53% to 40% among LIKELY VOTERS (those who said they would “Definitely Vote” if the election were held today.)  These results appear to be out of line with other recent polls that showed the raise essentially tied.  This may just be an outlier, so don’t get too excited.  However…..

Overall, the major finding concerning Obama’s lead and other findings I discuss below are VERY GOOD news for Obama and the Democrats if they are true.  We need to wait to see if other polls being conducted now and over the next few weeks support the Bloomberg findings.

Other findings in the Bloomberg poll:

62% think the nation is on the WRONG track about the same as other polls.
45% say Unemployment/Jobs is the most important issue facing the country.  Only 18% rate the federal deficit as most important.

Obama has a NET FAVORABLE rating of 55%, about the same as in other polls.
Romney has a NET FAVORABLE rating of 39% vs 43% in other polls.
A majority give a FAVORABLE rating to the Democratic Party (50%) and Bill Clinton (69%)
A majority give an UNFAVORABLE rating to the Republican Party (50%) and George W. Bush (51%).

A majority APPROVE of Obama’s job performance overall (53%) and his handling of terrorism (65%) but DISAPPROVE of his performance on the economy (53%) and the budget deficit (60%).

51% of Obama supporters say their support for Obama is VERY STRONG.  Only 35% of Romney supporters feel that way about Romney.

55% say Romney is more out of touch with average Americans vs only 36% who say Obama is out of touch.

Majorities say Obama is best at “understanding their problems and struggles” (55%) and “dealing with world leaders” (57%).  Obama leads Romney slightly 48% to 43% on the issue of who would do the best job of getting the economy going again.

Romney’s business experience with Bain Capital doesn’t seem to be helping him very much.  41% rate his experience as Governor of Massachusetts as more important and nearly half (49%) say the Bain experience DOES NOT make him better prepared than Obama to create jobs.  Nearly half (49%) say Obama has laid out a better vision for a successful economic future for the U.S.  Only 33% think Romney’s vision is better.

Slightly more than half (51%) in the Bloomberg poll said that agreed with the Obama/Democratic vision that the federal government should invest in infrastructure to create jobs).  Only 43% supported the Romney/Republican vision that the federal government should cut spending and lower taxes.

Read the full Bloomberg poll results here:

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