Tuesday, June 19, 2012

UPDATE: 2012 Election Forecast

Election Projection now has Romney carrying Ohio in addition to NC and FL giving him 253 electoral votes to 285 for Obama.  That puts Romney just 17 electoral votes short of the 270 he needs to win. 

Huffington Post Election Dashboard shows Obama with 269 to 191 for Romney with FL, NC, OH, WI, and Iowa all toss ups. They have Obama with a slight lead in VA.

Five Thirty Eight has Obama leading Romney 291 to 247.  They give VA and OH to Obama and NC and FL to Romney.

Chris Cillizza at the The Fix/Washington Post says Romney’s team is focused on six states as key to getting him to the magical 270 he needs to win.  These are: PA, WI, OH, MI, and IA.  Cillizza says Romney starts with 170.  Add in North Carolina, which we currently rate as a “toss up” but where nothing seems to be going right for the Obama team of late, and he is at 185. Add Florida, a state that still looks like a toss up but where Republicans are quite confident of their chances and he is at 214 electoral votes….Give Romney Ohio, Iowa and New Hampshire and he is at 240 electoral votes — still 30 shy of the mark.

The three remaining states — Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania — award 46 electoral …
Of the three, Wisconsin seems like Romney’s best chance as Bush came within .4 percent of winning the Badger State in 2004 and the recall victory of Gov. Scott Walker last month has emboldened conservatives nationwide.

Pennsylvania would be next on that list — although Democrats roll their eyes when Republicans talk about winning the Keystone State…
While Michigan is Romney’s home state — his father served as the governor — it is a very tough state for Republicans to win.

Running the table of these six states is very unlikely for Romney — and his people would almost certainly acknowledge that. But, if Romney can win Ohio, New Hampshire and Iowa and then maybe steal a Wisconsin, for example, it gives him more wiggle room in the other competitive states. Rather than needing to sweep the nine swing states — as we currently rank them — Romney could win Virginia and Nevada and crest 270. Or Colorado and Virginia.

No comments: