Nate Silver at 538 has released a new summary of where he
sees the competitive states based on his analysis of the most recent
polls. Silver forecasts that Obama
will win the Electoral College vote by 294 to 244 given current polls. Silver provides forecasts for the competitive
states in the chart below and here: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/26/oct-25-the-state-of-the-states/#more-36719
As you can see from the chart, Silver estimates that Obama
has a better than 90% chance of winning OR, NM, MN, and PA. Those states would give him 237 electoral votes. Obama has a better than 80% chance of
carrying WI and reaching 247 electoral votes, just 23 votes short of the
magical 270 he needs to win. NV and OH
would insure Obama’s re-election and Silver projects he has a 75% or better
chance of carrying those states.
In summary, Ohio continues to be a key state that could give
the win to Obama even if he loses FL, VA, NH, CO, IA. Let’s hope Silver is right.
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