Friday, October 26, 2012

Obama’s current path to victory

Nate Silver at 538 has released a new summary of where he sees the competitive states based on his analysis of the most recent polls.    Silver forecasts that Obama will win the Electoral College vote by 294 to 244 given current polls.  Silver provides forecasts for the competitive states in the chart below and here:

As you can see from the chart, Silver estimates that Obama has a better than 90% chance of winning OR, NM, MN, and PA.  Those states would give him 237 electoral votes.  Obama has a better than 80% chance of carrying WI and reaching 247 electoral votes, just 23 votes short of the magical 270 he needs to win.  NV and OH would insure Obama’s re-election and Silver projects he has a 75% or better chance of carrying those states. 

In summary, Ohio continues to be a key state that could give the win to Obama even if he loses FL, VA, NH, CO, IA.  Let’s hope Silver is right.

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