Monday, July 8, 2013

Will Egypt get a democratically-elected secular government? Not likely

Will Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood be replaced with a secular government?  Not likely say some analysts and they are probably right.

Joshua Tucker at the Monkey Cage, Dave Schuler at Outside the Beltway and Keven Drum at Mother Jones note that two years ago in Egypt, the Muslim Brotherhood got 37.5% of the vote, the even more radical Islamist Bloc got 27.8% and another Islamist party got 3.7%.  In other words, 69% of Egyptians voted for Muslim parties. In April 2013, Pew released a report titled “The World’s Muslims: Religion, Politics, and Society,” which included a nationally representative sample of 1,798 Egyptians....74 percent favored making sharia the official law of their country....Of those who favored making sharia the law of the land, 70 percent wanted sharia to apply to both Muslims as well as non-Muslims....94 percent wanted religious judges (instead of civil courts) to decide family and property matters; 70 percent wanted corporal (hadd) punishments for crimes; 81 percent supported stoning as punishment for adultery; and 86 percent supported punishing those who converted from Islam with death....Arab barometer data collected in June 2011 also found that 80% of a 1200-person nationally representative sample of Egyptians agreed or strongly agreed with the statement, “The government and parliament should enact laws in accordance with Islamic law.” Egyptians may not want Morsi but the voting and polling data suggest they DO want a Muslim government, NOT a secular government. One analyst put it this way: "In Egypt, you can either have a secular government or you can have a democracy. You probably can't have both." Egypt is NOT a secular nation. The military could install a kinder, gentler Mubarak-like secular dictator but if democratic elections are held the likely outcome is that Egypt will get another Islamist government.

In short, the Egyptian military has the power to IMPOSE a secular government but, given the opportunity to vote for they type of government they want, a majority of Egyptians will vote for an Islamist state.

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