Thursday, June 30, 2016

Bad News—Respected Pres Elec Forecaster Predicts Pres Trump

We now have a prediction concerning who will win the 2016 election from Helmut Norpoth of Stony Brook University.  Norpoth’s “PrimaryModel” has correctly predicted the winner of presidential elections in all five elections going back to 1996.  This year Norpoth says Donald Trump will win with 52.5% of the vote compared to 47.5% for Clinton.  Norpoth says there is a 87 % probability that this prediction will be correct.

Before you get TOO depressed, a number of other forecasts—See PolyVote—have predicted that Clinton will win by a similar margin.

Stay tuned.

No comments: