Wednesday, September 14, 2016

As the Race Stands Now

We have new electoral vote forecasts from four of the 10 election forecasters I'm tracking.

  • FiveThirtyEight predicts Hillary winning with 303 EVs to 235 for Trump.  They had her at 340 in late August.

  • Election Graphs gives Hillary 285 EVs to 253 for Trump, a big drop from a few weeks ago when they had Clinton winning with 347 EVs.

  • Princeton Election Consortium has Hillary at 323 to 215 for Trump, down from 340.

  • Finally, Election Projection has Clinton with 294 EVs to 244 for Trump.  That's down considerably from a few weeks ago when they had Clinton at 363.

Bottom Line:  The gap has closed considerably over the last few weeks.  Clinton's bounce from the convention has pretty much disappeared and it looks like the retooling and TelePrompter-restrictions on Trump may be working, at least to some extent, in winning back the college-educated white male vote.

Hillary needs to get back to the positive message that was so effective at the convention and leave the Trump-bashing to surrogates.  Bill Clinton, Sanders, Obama and Warren, among others, need to focus  on getting out the Black, Hispanic, Youth and college-educated women vote. This election is going to be close and Hillary could be in real trouble if these voters don't turn out in near record numbers.

Don't let anyone tell you Trump can't win.  Hillary has an advantage in the Electoral College vote.  That's true.  However, Trump's core supporters are much more fired up about this election and hate Clinton so much that the WILL turn out in record numbers.

The election IS going to be about turnout, turnout, turnout....and turnout.

Simple Message:  If you are excited about having Clinton for President and/or worried about getting Trump, then Vote and get every Clinton lover/Trump hater you can find to vote-and vote early or you might just wake up in January to find the White House renamed the Trump House.

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