Tuesday, October 11, 2016

Good News: Highly accurate forecasting model predicts Clinton victory

PollyVote, a presidential election forecasting model that combines the results from 37 other forecasting models, has an average error of 0.8% in predicting the outcome of presidential races at this time in the election cycle going back to 1992.  In other words, in the last six presidential elections, the final result predicted by PollyVote at this time in the election was off by less that 1 percentage point on average.

Today, PolyVote predicts that Hilary Clinton will win the 2016 election with 52.9% of the popular vote to 47.1% for Donald Trump—a margin of 5.8%.  

PollyVote predicts Clinton will receive 347 electoral votes to 191 for Trump.  That’s very good news for Clinton.  Her electoral victory would be better than Obama’s 332 Evs in 2112 but less than the 365 he got in 2008.

You can read more about the PollyVote forecasting model, its historical accuracy, and the current forecast here:  http://pollyvote.com/en/

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